From the other side of the consultation, briefly.
NNT calculation for cardiovascular risk clinical endpoints: NNT = 1/ARR (absolute risk reduction).
From SELECT trial: MACE at 39 months — 6.5% semaglutide vs 8.0% placebo. ARR = 1.5%. NNT = 67 over 3.3 years.
Compare to established therapies:
| Intervention | NNT | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Semaglutide (MACE) | 67 | 3.3 years |
| Statins primary prevention (MI) | ~100 | 5 years |
| Aspirin secondary prevention | ~77 | 2 years |
These NNTs are clinically meaningful and comparable to accepted cardiovascular interventions.
PedsEndoPhilly said:NNT calculation for cardiovascular risk clinical endpoints: NNT = 1/ARR (absolute risk reduction).
Cardiac biomarkers and cardiovascular risk: my cardiologist ordered advanced cardiac labs given my family history. Results were encouraging:
- NT-proBNP: 74 pg/mL (normal, cardiac function preserved)
- Lp(a): 44 nmol/L (genetic, unchanged — expected)
- ApoB: dropped from 154 to 99 mg/dL (excellent response)
- Coronary calcium score: 0 (unchanged from baseline — reassuring)
The ApoB reduction is particularly meaningful — it's considered the best single predictor of cardiovascular risk. GLP-1 therapy seems to improve this consistently.
PedsEndoPhilly said:NNT calculation for cardiovascular risk clinical endpoints: NNT = 1/ARR (absolute risk reduction).
Metabolic syndrome resolution on cardiovascular risk: I went from meeting 3 of 5 diagnostic criteria to meeting ZERO after 11 months of treatment.
The 5 criteria (and my journey):
- Waist circumference: 50" → 36" ✅ Resolved
- Triglycerides: 258 → 113 ✅ Resolved
- HDL: 34 → 60 ✅ Resolved
- Blood pressure: 148/96 → 121/75 ✅ Resolved
- Fasting glucose: 123 → 86 ✅ Resolved
Metabolic syndrome reversal is, in my view, the most medically significant outcome of GLP-1 therapy.
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Browse GL BiochemPedsEndoPhilly said:NNT calculation for cardiovascular risk clinical endpoints: NNT = 1/ARR (absolute risk reduction).
Thank you — that is the clearest version of this I have read, and I have read a lot of them. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.
Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again. Report rather than reply if it drifts again.