Dr.SportsMedIN said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
True, with the qualification that this is a self-selected group. The people for whom it did not work post less, and that shapes everything we think we know.
SleepFixSam said:Agreed on the target, with the caveat that reference weight and current weight are different numbers.
That reframing is the part I needed.
Dr.SportsMedIN said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. I would resist the confidence. Half of what this board was certain about two years ago has since been quietly dropped, and nobody went back to correct the threads.
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View ResultsOne concrete data point for the thread. Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a trend.
Happy to go further on any of that.
Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Report rather than reply if it drifts again.